CSRI: Your Permit Forecast

We combine nationality, county, sector, and company signals into one predictive score.

#1 Timeframe to Include in Calculation includes all years by default

#2 Select Your Nationality

#3 Select Your County

#4 Select Your Sector

#5 Select Your Company

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\[\text{Base Rate} = \frac{ (\text{Nationality Success Rate} \times \text{Nationality Weight}) + (\text{County Success Rate} \times \text{County Weight}) }{ \text{Total Volume} }\]
\[\text{Demand Factor} = 0.70 + 0.30 \times \frac{ \text{vol of issued Permits for target Sector} - \text{lowest vol of issued Permits for all Sectors} }{ \text{highest vol of issued Permits for all Sectors} - \text{lowest vol of issued Permits for all Sectors} }\]
\[\text{Demand Index} = \frac{ \text{Sector Demand Factor} + \text{Company Demand Factor} }{ 2 }\]
\[\text{CSRI Score} = (0.7 \times \text{Base Rate}) + (0.3 \times \text{Demand Index})\]
Total Application Volume (W) is treated as the primary indicator of data reliability and influence.
Historical success rates (2009–present) are considered predictive of current outcomes.
Issued Permits reflect labor demand and institutional expertise (higher volume implies higher future success).
Minimum demand is anchored to the National Average Success Rate (approx. 0.70), not zero.
Base Rate is weighted 70% more than the Demand Adjustment to reflect confidence in known data.
Company and Sector Demand are assumed to contribute equally (50/50) to the Demand Index.